The used electric vehicle market could soon see a major shift as more than 300,000 EVs are projected to come off lease in 2026. Industry observers are already referring to the surge as the “Great EV Return,” a wave of lease returns that could dramatically increase supply and finally deliver the kind of affordable electric cars many buyers have been waiting for.
The upcoming influx traces back to a spike in EV leasing about three years ago, when government incentives were strong and early adopters rushed to try electric models. As those typical three-year lease contracts expire, thousands of vehicles are now returning to dealerships in a relatively short period of time, potentially reshaping the used EV market.
Dave Thomas, senior manager of industry insights at dealership software provider CDK Global, recently shared insights from dealership data in an interview with Electrek. CDK Global’s systems support a large portion of dealership operations across the United States, giving the company a broad view of vehicle inventory trends. According to Thomas, the growing number of lease returns could significantly improve the value proposition of used electric vehicles.
Rapid Depreciation Creates Opportunities
The opportunity for buyers largely comes down to depreciation. Traditional gasoline vehicles from brands such as Honda and Toyota typically retain their value well over time. While that reliability is attractive, it also keeps used prices relatively high, making affordable late-model examples harder to find.
Electric vehicles follow a different pattern. Because EV technology continues to evolve quickly—with improvements in battery range, charging speeds, and software features—older electric models tend to depreciate faster than their gasoline counterparts. Although this faster decline can frustrate original owners, it creates an advantage for second-hand buyers.
For example, shoppers with a $20,000 budget in the conventional used-car market often end up considering higher-mileage vehicles or models that are several years old. In the used EV market, that same budget could potentially secure a much newer vehicle with lower mileage and more advanced features. Models such as the Tesla Model 3, Audi e-tron, or Hyundai Ioniq 5 may become more attainable as their prices fall following lease returns.
This dynamic could lead to an unusual scenario where used electric vehicles offer stronger value than comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
Benefits for Dealers and Buyers
The influx of lease returns may also benefit dealerships. Electric vehicles have fewer mechanical components than gasoline cars, which generally means less wear and tear when they come back after a typical three-year lease. As a result, dealers often face lower reconditioning costs before reselling these vehicles.
In addition, many used EVs are spending less time sitting on dealership lots compared with traditional gas-powered vehicles, suggesting strong demand among buyers looking for affordable electric options.
For consumers interested in purchasing a used EV, experts recommend focusing on three-year-old lease returns. These vehicles typically feature moderate mileage and documented service histories. Prospective buyers should also check the remaining battery warranty. Most automakers offer battery coverage for around eight years or 100,000 miles, meaning many lease-return vehicles still have significant warranty protection remaining.
For drivers who previously found electric cars out of reach, the so-called Great EV Return could open the door to a wide range of more affordable options in the near future.
