A new online calculator is giving adults as young as 30 a way to understand their long-term heart disease risk. The tool, described Nov. 17 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, helps people estimate their chances of developing heart problems over the next three decades.
Researchers say younger adults often ignore heart health until middle age. They hope this tool will change that mindset. The idea is similar to contributing to a retirement plan — starting early offers the best protection.
“We don’t want to wait until someone has a heart attack or stroke,” said senior researcher Dr. Sadiya Khan, a professor of cardiovascular epidemiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “Think of it like saving for retirement. We need to begin now.”
Even adults in their 30s who appear to have low short-term risk may still face high long-term danger. Earlier studies show that one in seven young adults with low immediate risk actually have high 30-year risk.
The new PREVENT Risk Percentiles Tool estimates a person’s 30-year risk by using common health measures. These include blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking habits, diabetes history and kidney function. The calculator then gives a percentile score that compares a person’s risk with 100 peers of the same age and sex.
For instance, someone with a 15% 30-year risk would be in the 75th percentile. This means 75 out of 100 people their age have a lower risk, while 25 have a higher risk.
“We are already familiar with percentiles from school tests or children’s growth charts,” Khan said. “This is the first time they are used for long-term heart disease risk.”
Khan added that seeing a high percentile, such as the 90th, may act as a strong warning. It can encourage people to take prevention more seriously and make changes sooner rather than later.
Researchers developed the calculator using data from nearly 8,700 people who participated in a long-term CDC health survey. They applied American Heart Association equations to estimate each person’s risk of heart attack, heart failure or stroke over 30 years.
The analysis showed that men had higher long-term risk than women at every age. At age 45, men had a median 16% risk, compared with 10% for women. However, Khan emphasized that women’s risk increases with age and eventually catches up, making sex-specific tools especially valuable.
Khan noted that a 30-year prediction can feel abstract. Comparing yourself to others your age may make the information more meaningful and easier to act on. Percentile results also create clearer motivation, much like seeing performance compared with peers on academic tests or growth charts.
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