Canada’s long-declining cervical cancer rates have stalled, according to new data from the Canadian Cancer Society. The latest report from the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee shows that between 2005 and 2021, the annual percentage change in cervical cancer incidence flattened to just under zero, marking the end of a 20-year decline observed from 1984 to 2005.
The stagnation poses a serious challenge to national and global efforts to eradicate cervical cancer. The World Health Organization aims to reduce incidence to fewer than four cases per 100,000 females globally within this century, while Canada previously set a target to eliminate the disease domestically by 2040. Experts say the country is no longer on track to meet that goal.
According to the report, approximately 430 Canadians are expected to die from cervical cancer in 2025—nearly all of them preventable. The condition is largely avoidable through vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) and regular screening.
Health officials attribute the plateau to falling HPV vaccination rates, lower participation in screening programs, and limited follow-up care. “If things continue as they are now, we’re not going to make that timeline,” said Brandon Purcell, advocacy manager for the Canadian Cancer Society. Jennifer Gillis, the Society’s director of surveillance, described the situation as “a concerning plateau.”
Public health experts link part of the decline in screening to the COVID-19 pandemic and to growing numbers of Canadians without access to a primary care physician. Dr. Amanda Selk, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto, called for alternative screening access points such as nurse-led clinics or at-home testing options.
Self-administered HPV testing—where individuals collect a vaginal swab at home for laboratory analysis—has been introduced in British Columbia and is credited with improving test coverage elsewhere. In Sweden, for example, testing coverage in the Stockholm region rose from 75 to 85 percent within one year of introducing at-home kits.
Switching from the traditional Pap smear to HPV testing offers another possible boost. Unlike Pap tests, which identify already abnormal cells, HPV tests detect the virus that can lead to cancer, helping physicians intervene earlier. Provinces including Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island have already made the transition.
Experts also point to vaccination gaps. The HPV vaccine, available free to school-aged children in Canada, has proven highly effective in preventing cervical cancer. A 2024 Scottish study reported no cervical cancer cases among fully vaccinated young women. However, adults who missed vaccination in childhood often must pay out of pocket, which can cost several hundred dollars. The Canadian Cancer Society recommends adopting a “once eligible, always eligible” policy to make vaccinations free regardless of age.
Other nations have used creative approaches to raise immunization rates. Sweden partnered with movie theaters to distribute HPV shots alongside free tickets and now allows adults previously vaccinated with older formulations to receive updated doses.
Despite the plateau in cervical cancer prevention, Canada’s broader cancer outlook shows progress. The five-year net survival rate for all cancers has climbed from 55 percent in the 1990s to 64 percent today. Mortality rates for lung and colorectal cancers have also declined.
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