A new long‑term study has found that teenagers who regularly use e‑cigarettes are smoking traditional cigarettes at rates comparable to young people in the 1970s. Despite dramatic reductions in youth smoking over the last five decades, data shows that one in three current teen vapers now also smoke cigarettes, echoing smoking prevalence recordeQd in 1974.
Using intergenerational data from three major UK birth cohorts—the National Child Development Study (born 1958), the British Cohort Study (born 1970), and the Millennium Cohort Study (born ~2001)—researchers led by the University of Michigan, in collaboration with Penn State and Purdue, compared youth smoking rates across generations.
They found that among 17‑year‑olds who never used e‑cigarettes, fewer than 1.5 per cent smoked weekly. In contrast, those who had tried vaping had over a 10 per cent chance of smoking, while consistent vapers had about a 33 per cent likelihood of also smoking cigarettes.
Dr Jessica Mongilio, a lead author and research fellow at Michigan’s Center for the Study of Drugs, Alcohol, Smoking and Health, warned that vaping appears to be disrupting decades of successful tobacco control trends. “For teens who vape, it’s almost as if past policies and attitudes have done nothing — their risk of smoking is very high,” she said.
Although the study does not prove that vaping causes smoking, it adds to a growing body of research suggesting a gateway effect. Previous studies confirm that teens who experiment with vaping are more likely to initiate cigarette use later on, even after accounting for shared risk factors like socioeconomic status or risk-taking behavior.
Critics, such as Professor Peter Hajek of Queen Mary University of London, argue the correlation may instead reflect a common predisposition to nicotine use. However, Mongilio stressed that even among “high‑risk” teens, those who had not vaped were unlikely to smoke, indicating vaping itself may elevate smoking risk.
The UK government has responded by banning single‑use disposable vapes, effective June 1, 2025, to curb youth uptake and reduce environmental waste. The policy prohibits sales of non‑rechargeable and non‑refillable e‑cigarettes, with penalties for retailers including fines and potential prosecution.
Health experts, however, warn of unintended consequences: some users may return to smoking or switch to unregulated alternatives, and market shifts toward reusable devices that mimic disposables may undermine the ban’s effectiveness.
Meanwhile, research highlighting the dangers of disposable vapes has emerged: studies show they may release toxic metals such as lead and nickel—sometimes in greater amounts than conventional cigarettes—raising serious health concerns, especially for adolescents.
Public health authorities stress renewed efforts to reduce vaping initiation among youth, especially current users, while promoting enforcement, education, and regulation. Without such actions, decades of progress in lowering teen smoking could be reversed.
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