Leading UK insurers Aviva and Admiral have said the motor insurance market will continue to grow for decades, despite the increasing presence of autonomous vehicles (AVs), which some analysts have suggested could threaten traditional retail insurance models.
Admiral forecast that self-driving cars would account for only around 4% of the market by 2035, leaving strong demand for conventional motor cover. CEO Milena Mondini de Focatiis told the Financial Times that Admiral expects the motor insurance market to expand over the next 20 years, at a minimum.
Aviva CEO Amanda Blanc echoed this cautious outlook, noting that while autonomous vehicles are coming, widespread adoption is unlikely before 2040. She emphasized that even fully self-driving cars will allow drivers to retain some control in challenging situations, meaning they will still require some level of traditional insurance coverage rather than relying solely on commercial liability policies.
Analysts have debated the potential impact of AVs on the retail insurance sector. Jefferies noted that Admiral’s 4% market share projection is lower than some earlier assumptions. Citi analyst James Shuck said that the introduction of autonomous vehicles will shift a portion of retail insurance business to wholesale or commercial lines, raising questions about whether the market will maintain a modest 2% annual growth or begin contracting.
Recent developments have also highlighted broader technological disruption in insurance. US insurer Lemonade’s announcement in January that it would offer discounts for self-driving cars briefly triggered a sell-off in UK motor insurer shares, including Admiral, though prices have since largely recovered. Analysts have raised concerns that AI tools like ChatGPT could reduce reliance on traditional price comparison websites, potentially reshaping consumer behavior in insurance shopping. Mondini de Focatiis argued that comparison websites still hold an advantage in the UK due to their broad price visibility, but AI could disrupt markets where direct distribution is less established, particularly in parts of Europe.
The insurers’ statements came alongside strong financial results. Both Admiral and Aviva reported operating profit increases exceeding 10% for the previous year, aligning with analyst expectations.
UK motor insurance prices have fallen from their post-Covid highs, but premiums are expected to rise in 2026, driven in part by the increasing cost of replacing complex car components. Association of British Insurers data shows that average premiums rose £8 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to £559, following a general downward trend over most of the previous year.
