More than a quarter of healthy life years lost to breast cancer worldwide are linked to lifestyle factors such as red meat consumption, smoking, and physical inactivity, according to the largest study of its kind.
Published in The Lancet Oncology, the study analyzed data from population-based cancer registries spanning 1990 to 2023 across more than 200 countries. It also projected global breast cancer trends through 2050, revealing a sharp rise in new cases. In the UK, roughly one in seven women is expected to develop breast cancer in her lifetime.
Globally, new breast cancer cases in women are forecast to increase by a third, from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 3.5 million by 2050, according to the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators.
The findings highlight the potential for prevention through lifestyle changes. Maintaining a healthy weight, reducing red meat intake, abstaining from smoking, staying physically active, and limiting alcohol consumption could prevent more than a quarter of healthy life years lost to the disease. This aligns with previous research by Cancer Research UK, which found that over 40% of cancer cases in the UK could be prevented through lifestyle modifications.
Kayleigh Bhangdia, lead author of the study and researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said: “Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women’s lives and communities. While high-income countries benefit from screening, timely diagnosis, and comprehensive treatment, the burden is increasingly shifting to low- and lower-middle-income countries, where later-stage diagnosis, limited access to quality care, and higher death rates threaten to undermine global progress in women’s health.”
The study also found that in 2023, women aged 55 or older were three times more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women aged 20-54, with 161 cases per 100,000 women compared to 50 cases. However, incidence rates in women aged 20-54 have risen nearly 30% since 1990, while rates among older women have remained largely unchanged.
Globally, 28% of the breast cancer burden in 2023—equivalent to 6.8 million years of healthy life lost—was attributed to six potentially modifiable risk factors. High red meat consumption accounted for the largest share (11%), followed by tobacco use including secondhand smoke (8%), high blood sugar (6%), high body mass index (4%), and both high alcohol use and low physical activity (2% each).
Claire Rowney, chief executive of Breast Cancer Now, said: “This global study is a stark reminder that breast cancer continues to devastate lives worldwide. Our goal is that by 2050, everyone with breast cancer will live well, and we are accelerating progress through global collaborations to ensure all women have access to early diagnosis, effective treatment, and necessary support.”
Sophie Brooks, health information manager at Cancer Research UK, added: “These figures underscore the heavy toll of breast cancer globally. Prevention remains critical, with many cases linked to modifiable factors such as smoking, overweight, and alcohol consumption.”
