A new analysis shows that about 10.9 million Americans could lose health insurance under President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill, which passed the House but faces a challenging path in the Senate. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that this figure includes 1.4 million undocumented residents covered by state-funded programs.
The legislation would require nondisabled Medicaid recipients to work at least 80 hours per month or qualify for an exemption, such as being a student or caregiver. It would also end Medicaid coverage for immigrants receiving state-funded assistance.
The CBO estimates the bill would cut federal spending by roughly $1.3 trillion through 2034 while delivering $3.75 trillion in tax cuts, increasing the federal deficit by nearly $2.4 trillion over the decade.
Health analysts warn that if the Medicaid changes and adjustments to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace pass Congress, the impact on coverage could be severe. Earlier, the CBO projected that nearly 4 million people would lose insurance by 2034 if pandemic-era ACA tax credits were not extended.
Kathy Hempstead, senior policy officer at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, said Trump’s Medicaid reforms combined with the expiration of enhanced ACA tax credits could put nearly 15 million Americans at risk of losing coverage.
“We’re making a giant U-turn here,” Hempstead said. “Are we really going to be a thriving, productive society if a huge share of our population is uninsured?”
She added that the uninsured may delay care and accumulate medical debt, while hospitals and doctors would face financial strain from uncompensated care.
“There’s going to be a big hit on the health care economy as people stop getting care and start seeking care they can’t afford,” Hempstead said.
Related topic：
