Volvo Trucks North America (VTNA) anticipates a moderate rise in Class 8 truck orders for 2026 and 2027, driven by a mild pre-buy effect ahead of stricter Environmental Protection Agency regulations. However, the current freight market conditions do not fully support the recent surge in orders, according to Peter Voorhoeve, President of VTNA. Speaking at the New River Valley manufacturing plant in Dublin, Virginia, Voorhoeve highlighted a discrepancy between order volumes and actual sales so far this year.
Data from ACT Research shows that Class 8 truck orders in North America jumped 156% year over year to 46,200 units in February 2026. In contrast, sales for the same month fell by 17.4%, reaching their lowest February total since 2017 with only 12,992 trucks sold. This divergence suggests that many orders may have been placed without underlying demand from the freight market, which has been experiencing a recession lasting nearly four years.
Production at Volvo’s New River Valley plant and sister company Mack Trucks has been impacted by weak demand. Both manufacturers paused assembly operations for several weeks during the first quarter of 2026 and reduced workforce levels throughout 2025. Despite some recent improvements in freight rates, these gains have not been enough to justify the high order volumes. Additionally, the average age of trucking fleets remains elevated at around 6.6 to 6.7 years, exceeding the typical replacement target of less than six years.
The expected increase in truck prices due to tariffs and upcoming regulatory changes is prompting some fleets to accelerate purchases before new standards take effect, creating a mild pre-buy phenomenon. Voorhoeve projects that while orders will increase this year compared to 2025, sales growth will be modest and most demand will materialize in the second half of 2027. VTNA’s parent company, Volvo Group, has raised its North American sales forecast for 2026 by 6% to approximately 265,000 trucks.
Looking ahead through the remainder of the decade, Volvo Trucks is optimistic about stronger market conditions as regulatory challenges are resolved. The company is investing heavily in new product lines at its New River Valley plant, including the recently relaunched VNR regional-haul tractor and an overhauled VNL long-haul model. Serial production of the updated VNR began in February 2026, with over 2,000 orders secured since its order book opened in September 2025.
In addition to these models, VTNA plans to launch a third heavy-haul and vocational truck model later in 2026 as part of a $400 million plant modernization project. These initiatives support Volvo Group’s goal to capture a 25% share of the North American heavy-duty truck market by 2030. Currently, VTNA holds a 9.1% share of U.S. Class 8 retail sales, with Mack Trucks accounting for an additional 8.7%.
Despite ongoing challenges in freight demand and profitability for carriers, Volvo’s leadership anticipates that market conditions will gradually improve during the second half of this year and into the next. Magnus Koeck, VTNA’s Vice President of Strategy, Marketing, and Brand Management, noted that although early 2026 started quietly, stronger growth is expected as freight activity picks up.
Overall, Volvo Trucks is balancing cautious optimism with strategic investments to strengthen its position amid a complex market environment characterized by shifting demand patterns and regulatory pressures.
