Sugar consumption is declining in the United States and Western Europe and is stagnating globally, driven by higher taxes on sugary drinks and the growing use of weight-loss medications, industry analysts and executives say.
The drop in demand has already prompted sugar factory closures in both the U.S. and Europe and pushed sugar prices to roughly five-year lows. Analysts warn that this trend could accelerate as the falling cost of popular weight-loss drugs boosts their global adoption.
According to the International Sugar Organization, sugar consumption in Western Europe has fallen by 6.7% over the past two years, while U.S. consumption has declined by 4.4%. Global sugar use is forecast to grow just 0.5% in the 2026/27 season—a historically low figure that analysts describe as the “new normal.”
Eder Vieito, CEO of consultancy Green Pool, noted at the annual Dubai Sugar Conference that the slowdown follows decades of steady growth, with consumption rising about 2% annually and roughly doubling over the past 50 years. “There are a number of factors contributing to this, not just weight-loss drugs, but they are certainly a significant factor,” Vieito said, citing sugar taxes and stricter food labeling regulations as additional influences.
The weight-loss drugs in question, known as GLP-1 medications, reduce calorie intake by 16% to 39% and decrease the preference for sweet, high-fat foods, according to Annie Denny, Director General of the World Sugar Research Organisation (WSRO). In the U.S., roughly one in eight adults have used GLP-1 drugs such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy or Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, though global usage remains below 1%.
The drugs are expected to gain traction in G-20 countries, particularly as some patents expire this year, opening the door to more affordable alternatives. Emerging markets such as Brazil, China, India, and Turkey—home to about a quarter of the world’s obese adult population—also represent significant growth opportunities. Declining prices for branded drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound further support rising demand.
In addition to pharmaceuticals, sugary drink taxes have contributed to lower consumption in Europe over the past decade. Countries including Britain, Mexico, and South Africa have introduced taxes tied to sugar content, prompting manufacturers to reduce sugar in beverages. “Global demand growth has slowed as consumers and governments push for reduced sugar use,” said Stephen Geldart, head of analysis at Czarnikow. John Adams, Director of Sugar Research at GlobalData, added, “The slowdown in sugary soft drink growth is a major driver of this trend.”
While rising sugar demand in Asia and Africa, fueled by population growth, has partially offset declines in Western markets, the long-term upward trend in global sugar consumption appears to have stalled.
