A study published in Nature Medicine on July 7 estimates that 15.8 million people born globally between 2008 and 2017 may develop gastric cancer in their lifetime, with 76% of cases linked to Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection.
cientists urge increased investment in gastric cancer prevention, particularly population-wide H. pylori screening and treatment programs to reduce the global burden.
Gastric cancer is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Chronic H. pylori infection, a key cause, is preventable with effective treatment. Rising incidence in younger people, coupled with aging and population growth, risks reversing recent progress in lowering the disease’s mortality and incidence. However, forecasting future cases is crucial to shaping mitigation strategies.
Researchers from the IARC/WHO analyzed 2022 gastric cancer incidence data from 185 countries and combined it with cohort-specific mortality projections from UN population data. They predict 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer diagnoses in the 2008–2017 birth cohort without intervention, with 11.9 million (76%) attributable to H. pylori.
Asia may see 10.6 million new cases; sub-Saharan Africa, currently with a relatively low burden, could face at least six times the 2022 estimate. Simulations showed population-wide H. pylori screening and treatment could cut cases by up to 75%.
The study notes limitations from data quality and coverage, especially in resource-poor regions with incomplete cancer registries. Still, it calls for strengthened global efforts to prevent and monitor gastric cancer to curb its spread.
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